Greater Birmingham Housing Market Report — August 2026

August 2026 Edition  |  Reporting June 2026 Closings  |  The Williams Group at Keller Williams Realty

What Is Happening With Mortgage Rates?

The national news has been loud this summer. Mortgage rates climbed for weeks. Inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.69% in early August. It was near 6.09% late last year. Headlines like that make homeowners worry about their value. They make buyers wonder if they missed their chance.

Here is the calm version. The national headlines and the Greater Birmingham housing market are two different stories. Both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association still expect rates to settle around 6.4% to 6.5% by the end of the year. While the country argues about that, here is what actually happened across the metro in June.

In June, a first-time buyer renting in Shelby County told our team she was about ready to give up on buying. She had been saving for three years. Every time she felt ready, the news gave her a new reason to freeze. First it was prices. Then it was rates. Then it was stories about buyers skipping inspections and bidding way over asking. Her lease renewal was sitting on her kitchen counter with a rent increase on it. Based on the headlines, she believed buying meant two bad things at once. She would overpay for the house, and she would lose bidding wars along the way. So she had stopped touring homes.

Kara Ulmer showed her what the headlines missed. The bidding-war story was real, but it was happening in Jefferson County. That is where the typical June sale closed over asking. Shelby County had quietly shifted the other way. Sales had slowed. Prices had gone flat. The typical Shelby seller was negotiating, giving up about 1.5% off the asking price by the time the sale closed. So Kara changed the plan. Instead of chasing brand-new listings against other buyers, she built the search around homes that had been sitting past Shelby’s 11-day norm. Those sellers had already lived through a few quiet weekends. They toured on a Tuesday and found a home that had been on the market over a month. They offered below the asking price and asked the seller to help pay closing costs. After one round of talks, she got both. Her monthly payment landed close to the rent increase she almost signed. Same metro and same rates, but two very different markets. The difference was not luck. It was knowing which side of the county line held the power.

How Did June Go Across the Metro?

Here are the numbers. They come straight from the Greater Alabama MLS. The table compares June 2026 to June 2025 for both counties. The most interesting part is that Jefferson County and Shelby County moved in different directions.

Source: Greater Alabama MLS Market Statistics, residential class, pulled August 4, 2026. Closed-month data can shift slightly as late entries post.

Jefferson County got stronger, not weaker. The median price rose 6.6% to $319,900. Sales edged up, even with 13% more new listings hitting the market. And here is the number that says it all. The typical home sold for 100.66% of its asking price. In the middle of the loudest rate headlines in months, Jefferson County buyers were paying over asking. The typical home went under contract in 12 days.

Shelby County shifted down a gear. Sales dipped about 5%. The median price held flat at $370,000. Homes sold at 98.53% of asking, which means the typical seller gave up about 1.5% in negotiation. That is not a downturn. It is a pause. Homes still sold in a typical 11 days.

Same metro and same rates, but two different speeds. That is exactly why the county trend is a starting point, not advice. Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, and McCalla each behave differently, even inside the same county.

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

If you own in Jefferson County, June was a seller’s month. Prices went up. Homes sold in under two weeks. The typical sale closed over the asking price. If you own in Shelby County, your equity held steady. But the market stopped rewarding aggressive prices. That 98.53% number means the typical Shelby seller who priced high had to negotiate it back down. In both counties, the winning homes were priced on real sales data, not hope. If you are thinking about a move, start with what your own home would sell for, not the county average. Our selling resources cover what preparation actually pays off.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Your plan should change at the county line. In Jefferson County, well-priced homes are getting offers above asking in under two weeks. Go in prepared, pre-approved, and ready to decide. In Shelby County, you have more room. Prices are flat, sellers are negotiating, and you have a bit more time. Rates in the mid-6% range have cut into buying power on paper. But forecasts pointing to 6.4% to 6.5% by year-end mean the picture is shifting, not closing. Whether you are buying your first home or buying and selling at the same time, what matters is your own number at today’s rates. Our financing resources are a good place to start.

What Are We Watching Next Month?

Two questions for September. First, is Shelby County’s pause a one-month blip or the start of a trend? July’s sales will tell us. Second, the Federal Reserve meets in September with inflation still high. Whatever the Fed does will shape rates for the rest of the year. We are not in the prediction business. We are in the reporting business. We will break down July’s numbers in next month’s report. You can browse all of our housing market reports anytime.

Greater Birmingham Housing Market FAQ

The Williams Group at Keller Williams Realty reports on the Greater Birmingham housing market every month. Data: Greater Alabama MLS Market Statistics, June 2026 residential closings for Jefferson and Shelby counties, pulled August 4, 2026. National rate data: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.