Greater Birmingham Housing Market Report — September 2026

September 2026 Edition  |  Reporting July 2026 Closings  |  The Williams Group at Keller Williams Realty

What Is Happening With Mortgage Rates?

You may have seen scary headlines about mortgage rates this summer. Here is the simple version. The 30-year fixed rate was 6.66% in late August, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. That is about where it has been all summer.

The forecast is what changed. Last month, experts at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association expected rates to drop to about 6.4% or 6.5% by the end of the year. In August, Fannie Mae changed its forecast. It now expects rates to stay near 6.8% through the end of 2026 and into 2027. The reasons are government debt, inflation, and an uncertain economy. If you were waiting for rates to drop, the experts now say that may not happen soon. So what does this mean here at home? July’s sales across the Birmingham metro tell the real story.

In late July, a Hoover couple called our team ready to overpay. They had read that Jefferson County homes were selling over the asking price, including in our own June report. They had also lost a bid in the spring. So their plan was simple. They would offer $15,000 over asking on any good house and hope it was enough. They asked Sam Hairston how much over asking they should go. His answer surprised them. Maybe nothing.

Sam studied finance at the University of Alabama. Before he wrote an offer, he pulled July’s sales as they came in. The bidding frenzy the couple feared had already cooled. Jefferson County’s median price had slipped to $310,000, a bit under last July. Homes still sold at full asking price in about 13 days. But the numbers showed buyers were paying the list price, not fighting bidding wars. Sam also ran the math on rates. At 6.66%, waiting for the 6.4% rate that spring forecasts promised no longer made sense. Fannie Mae now expects rates near 6.8% into 2027. So the couple did not pay $15,000 extra to beat bidders who were not there. They did not sit out waiting for a cheaper loan either. They toured the house on day two. They offered exactly the asking price, with a clean timeline, and they kept their inspection. They were under contract that weekend, for less than they had budgeted. The market did not get easier. It got different. Knowing the difference saved them real money.

Did Jefferson and Shelby Really Trade Places in July?

Yes, they did. Here are the numbers, straight from the Greater Alabama MLS. The table compares July 2026 to July 2025 for both counties.

Source: Greater Alabama MLS Market Statistics, residential class, pulled September 3, 2026. Closed-month data can shift slightly as late entries post.

Jefferson County cooled off, but it did not slow down. In June, its median price hit $319,900 and homes sold for 100.66% of asking. In July, the median price eased to $310,000. That is a little below last July. But homes still sold at slightly over full asking price, in a typical 13 days. So this looks less like falling values and more like the end of bidding wars. One month does not make a trend. August’s numbers will tell us more.

Shelby County answered June’s question. Last month we asked if Shelby’s pause was a one-time blip. July’s answer: prices firmed up. The median rose about 2% to $372,000. But about 8% fewer homes sold, and the typical seller still gave up about 1.3% in negotiation. Values are steady, and buyers are choosy. Remember, the county trend is a starting point, not advice. Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, and McCalla each behave differently, even inside the same county.

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

If you own in Jefferson County, the market is still on your side. Full asking price in 13 days is a seller’s market. But the bonus round is over. July’s buyers paid what homes were worth, not extra. That means the price you list at is likely the price you get, so set it carefully. If you own in Shelby County, your equity grew again. But with 8% fewer sales and buyers negotiating on most deals, pricing and preparation decide whether you sell in two weeks or sit all fall. In both counties, our selling resources cover what preparation actually pays off. The first step is knowing your own number.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Your plan still changes at the county line, but July made both sides easier. In Jefferson County, the days of bidding $15,000 over asking have faded. A fast, clean, full-price offer now wins homes that spring buyers overpaid for. In Shelby County, you have room to negotiate on the typical sale, plus more new listings to choose from than last July. On rates, here is the honest truth. Experts no longer expect rates to drop much soon. Fannie Mae now expects rates near 6.8% into 2027. So the smart move is to negotiate the price in front of you, not to wait for a cheaper loan. If rates do fall later, you can refinance. Whether you are buying your first home or buying and selling at the same time, what matters is your own number at today’s rates. Our financing resources are a good place to start.

What Are We Watching Next Month?

We are watching two things. First, was Jefferson County’s price dip a one-month blip or the start of a trend? August’s numbers will tell us. With the bidding wars gone, pricing a home right matters more there than it has all year. Second, the Federal Reserve meets in mid-September. Inflation is still high, and whatever the Fed does will shape rates for the rest of the year. We are not in the prediction business. We are in the reporting business. We will break down August’s numbers in next month’s report. You can read last month’s report or browse all of our housing market reports anytime.

Greater Birmingham Housing Market FAQ

The Williams Group at Keller Williams Realty reports on the Greater Birmingham housing market every month. Data: Greater Alabama MLS Market Statistics, July 2026 residential closings for Jefferson and Shelby counties, pulled September 3, 2026. National rate data: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; forecast data: Fannie Mae August 2026 economic outlook.

Moving to the metro from out of state? Our relocation guides do the math this report does not: Moving to Hoover, Moving to Homewood, Moving to Vestavia Hills and Moving to Birmingham — property tax by city, utilities by provider, school zoning and the out-of-state buying process.