Tuscaloosa County Housing Market Report — September 2026

September 2026 Edition  |  Reporting July 2026 Closings  |  The Williams Group at Keller Williams Realty

What Is Happening With Mortgage Rates?

You may have seen scary headlines about mortgage rates this summer. Here is the simple version. The 30-year fixed rate was 6.66% in late August, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. That is about where it has been all summer.

The forecast is what changed. Last month, experts at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association expected rates to drop to about 6.4% or 6.5% by the end of the year. In August, Fannie Mae changed its forecast. It now expects rates to stay near 6.8% through the end of 2026 and into 2027. The reasons are government debt, inflation, and an uncertain economy. If you were waiting for rates to drop, the experts now say that may not happen soon. So what does this mean here at home? July’s sales in Tuscaloosa County tell the real story.

In mid-July, a couple called our team from out of state. They were moving back to Tuscaloosa for work. They grew up here and were coming home. They had read headlines that said home sales were falling. So they made a plan. They would offer 8% to 10% below the asking price on any home they liked. It did not work. One seller said no and countered near full price. The other seller did not respond at all. The couple was confused. They thought this was supposed to be a buyer’s market.

Lee Hannah sat down with them and explained what the headlines left out. Lee is a Tuscaloosa native. He spent more than 30 years in sales and customer service before real estate, and he knows this market well. He showed them the numbers. Fewer homes were selling, and that part was true. Sales were down about 8% from last July. But prices were not falling. The median sale price was up more than 6%. What really changed was choice. There were more than 800 homes for sale, over 20% more than the year before. That split the market in two groups. Fresh, well-priced homes were still selling fast and near full price. Low offers on those homes were a waste of time. But many other homes had been sitting for 45, 60, or even 90 days. Those sellers were ready to make a deal. So Lee pointed the couple toward homes that had been sitting. One was a Northport home that had been for sale since spring, with two price cuts. They offered below the asking price and asked the seller to help pay closing costs. After one round of talks, they got the house at a real discount. The seller was relieved to have a buyer. The lesson is simple. You have to know which kind of listing you are shopping for.

How Did July Go in Tuscaloosa County?

Here are the numbers. They come straight from the West Alabama MLS. The table compares July 2026 to July 2025.

Source: West Alabama MLS, residential closed sales, pulled September 3, 2026. Closed-month data can shift slightly as late entries post.

Here is what the table means. Prices rose 6.1% in one year. Home values are not falling here, even with all the national noise. And here is the answer to last month’s big question. In June, the typical home took 28 days to sell, and we wondered if that number would keep growing. It did not. In July, the typical home sold in 22 days. Buyers are still here. They just have more homes to pick from than in any recent summer. Homes priced on real sales data sold fast and for full value. Homes priced on hope kept sitting.

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

Your equity likely grew again. The median July sale was up about $16,500 from last year. But there is less room for error now. There are over 20% more homes for sale than last year. Every buyer who tours your home is comparing it to more choices. The homes that win are priced on real sales data and prepared well. Those homes sell fast and hold their price. The rest sit, and buyers negotiate hard on them. Every neighborhood is different, from Northport to Cottondale to Tuscaloosa itself. The county trend is a starting point, not advice. If you are thinking about selling, the first step is knowing your own number. Our selling resources cover what preparation actually pays off.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Buyers have more choices now than they have had in years. There were 822 homes for sale in July, compared to 676 a year ago. That choice gives you power, if you aim it right. New, well-priced homes still sell fast and near full price. Homes that have sat longer than 22 days are where you can negotiate. On rates, here is the honest truth. Experts no longer expect rates to drop much soon. Fannie Mae now expects rates near 6.8% into 2027. So the smart move is to negotiate the price in front of you, not to wait for a cheaper loan. If rates do fall later, you can refinance. Whether you are buying your first home or buying and selling at the same time, what matters is your own number at today’s rates. Our financing resources are a good place to start.

What Are We Watching Next Month?

We are watching two things. First, the fall market. In August, 247 homes went under contract. That is up from 215 in July. It points to a steady fall season, not a stall. August’s final numbers will tell us for sure. Second, the Federal Reserve meets in mid-September. Inflation is still high, and whatever the Fed does will shape rates for the rest of the year. We are not in the prediction business. We are in the reporting business. We will break down August’s numbers in next month’s report. You can read last month’s report or browse all of our housing market reports anytime.

Tuscaloosa County Housing Market FAQ

The Williams Group at Keller Williams Realty reports on the Tuscaloosa County housing market every month. Data: West Alabama MLS, July 2026 residential closings, pulled September 3, 2026. National rate data: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; forecast data: Fannie Mae August 2026 economic outlook.