QUICK SUMMARY
As of September 2026, the University of Alabama reported a record fall enrollment of 42,431 students. The number everyone misses is the second one: that is an increase of just 71 students over fall 2025, or about two tenths of one percent. So the headline is “record,” but the housing story is “flat.” For anyone buying a condo, a rental or a house in Tuscaloosa because of UA growth, the honest read is that student demand is holding at a very high level rather than climbing the way it did earlier this decade.
The University of Alabama released its fall 2026 census numbers on September 14, and The Williams Group at Keller Williams Realty has had the same conversation with three different families since. Parents and investors have spent several years buying into a growth story. Here is what the actual numbers say, and what we would do with them.
ALSO ON CAMPUS
Alongside the enrollment numbers, UA trustees authorized planning for an $88 million South Campus recreation center in September 2026. We look at what that project does and does not mean for nearby condo owners.
What did UA actually report for fall 2026?
Total enrollment: 42,431. A record, up 71 students from the fall 2025 census figure of 42,360.
Alabama residents: 18,652. Up 3.6 percent from 18,007 the year before. This is where the real movement happened.
Incoming academic profile continues to rise. An average high school GPA of 3.86 for first-time undergraduates, and 280 National Merit Scholars in the freshman class joining more than 1,200 National Merit students on campus.
Six-year graduation rate: 75.5 percent for the 2020 cohort, which UA describes as a record high since it began tracking the measure in 1988.
UA framed the flat total deliberately. President Peter Mohler described the result as “purposeful progress” and said the university will keep aligning enrollment strategy to workforce needs rather than chasing size. Read plainly, that is a university telling you it is not planning to add five thousand students next year.
Why does a 71-student increase matter to the housing market?
Because the supply side did not stay flat. Tuscaloosa has absorbed a large amount of purpose-built student housing over the last decade, plus the conversion of older apartment stock near campus and a steady flow of condo and townhome product marketed specifically to UA parents. When bed count grows and headcount does not, the competition shifts from the student to the landlord.
What that looks like in practice, in our experience working this market:
Location inside the market matters more than it used to. Walkability to campus, the Strip and the rec fields is doing a lot of work. A unit that requires a drive and a parking pass competes on price in a way a walkable one does not.
Condition and management are no longer optional. When families have choices, deferred maintenance, weak HOA reserves and slow management get punished on renewal.
Underwrite on real rent, not aspirational rent. A pro forma built on the rent the building charged in a tighter year is the single most common mistake we see on parent-investor purchases.
Thinking about buying near campus for a student? Start with our Complete Guide for UA student parents, then call us at 205-292-2108 to talk through a specific building.
Does this change whether a parent should buy instead of rent?
It changes the math, not the logic. The case for buying a condo for a student has always rested on four things: how many years the student will be enrolled, whether a younger sibling follows, whether you can cover carrying costs without the rental income, and what you believe you can sell for at the end. Flat enrollment mostly touches the last one.
Our honest guidance right now is to underwrite the exit conservatively and stop counting on appreciation to rescue a thin deal. If the purchase works with realistic rent, realistic HOA dues, realistic vacancy between leases, and a flat resale, it is a reasonable buy. If it only works assuming rents keep climbing and the unit sells for more than you paid, that is a bet, not a plan. We have walked several families away from units this year for exactly that reason, and that is a normal part of the job.
A related caution worth repeating: buying into a student building means buying into its association and its maintenance history. We covered a real example of how badly that can go in our reporting on maintenance problems at The Walk and what UA families learned from them. Read the HOA minutes. All of them.
What about the 3.6 percent jump in Alabama students?
This is the most interesting number in the release and nobody is talking about it. An additional 645 in-state students, against a roughly flat total, means UA’s mix is shifting toward Alabama residents.
In-state students behave differently in a housing market than out-of-state students do. They are more likely to have family within a few hours, more likely to be price sensitive, more likely to commute for part of their degree, and more likely to stay in Alabama after graduation. Over time, a more in-state class tends to support the entry-level buyer market across Tuscaloosa County more than it supports the premium walkable-condo market. It also lines up with UA’s stated push on workforce pipelines, including the nursing school expansion and the broader future-ready flagship plan.
That is a slow signal, not a this-quarter signal. But if you are deciding between a condo aimed at a four-year student stay and a small house in Northport or east Tuscaloosa that a young professional could rent for a decade, the in-state trend quietly favors the second one.
The Williams Group perspective on Tuscaloosa right now
Tuscaloosa is not a one-employer town, and treating UA enrollment as the whole market is the mistake we most often correct. The university is the anchor, but Mercedes-Benz U.S. International in Vance and its supplier network, DCH Regional Medical Center, Tuscaloosa City and County schools, and the eastern Tuscaloosa County industrial corridor all move housing demand independent of how many freshmen arrive in August.
What flat enrollment really does is narrow the gap between student-driven housing and everything else. For several years the campus-adjacent product carried a premium justified by growth. With growth paused, buyers who need a home rather than a proximity bet have more room than they did, and sellers of student-oriented units have to compete on condition, price and management rather than on the story.
For current pricing and inventory rather than narrative, our Tuscaloosa County housing market report is updated monthly from MLS data.
Own a condo near campus and wondering whether to hold or sell? Get a free valuation with real comparable sales, not an automated estimate.
NEXT YEAR STARTS OCTOBER 1
If your student starts at UA in fall 2027, the 2027-28 FAFSA and the UA freshman housing application both open October 1, 2026. Here is a simple checklist for the FAFSA, UA housing dates and fees, and when to think about sophomore housing.
Frequently asked questions
How many students are enrolled at the University of Alabama in fall 2026?
42,431 students, according to UA’s fall 2026 census figures released September 14, 2026. That is a record total and an increase of 71 students over the fall 2025 figure of 42,360.
Is UA still growing?
Barely, by total headcount. Fall 2026 was up about two tenths of one percent over fall 2025. The university has described this as intentional, measured growth rather than an expansion push. In-state enrollment, however, grew 3.6 percent.
Is it still a good idea to buy a condo for a UA student?
It can be, if the numbers work on their own. Build the analysis on current market rent, actual HOA dues and reserves, vacancy between academic years, and a flat resale price. If the purchase only makes sense assuming rents and values keep rising, treat it as a speculative investment rather than a housing decision.
When should a parent start looking for Tuscaloosa student housing?
Earlier than most families expect. Leasing for the following academic year opens well before spring, and purchase decisions tied to an August move-in are far less stressful when they start the previous fall or winter. Our condo guide for rush and move-in timing lays out the calendar.
Sources
Fall 2026 enrollment figures, in-state numbers, academic profile, graduation rate and President Mohler quote: The University of Alabama, “UA enrollment reflects strategic growth, continued investment in preparing leaders,” September 14, 2026
Last updated: September 2026.
Want a straight answer on a Tuscaloosa condo or rental?
Send us the building and we will tell you what units there have actually sold and rented for, and whether the numbers work. If they do not, we will say so.
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